recruiterchuckcowan

Retail Mortgage Banking- Future Disruption

From 1992 till 2006, Mortgage Lending experience a consolidation that was un-presentenced as the top 5 lenders’ market share increased to 60%. Since 2010 we have seen a de-consolidation to the point that only 5 of the top 20 single-family mortgage originators in 2006 have remained active in the market today. There has been this rush to fill that vacuum by the independent mortgage originator that are back by Venture Capitalist, REIT’s and private money and now the top 5 only controlled 40% of the originations. Now that is a seismic shift in 8 years, but is that model going to be able sustain itself? The answer is playing itself out in 2014, as we move forward into a totally purchase dominated market, that with the latest estimates of being a 1.0 Trillion Market.

The larger lenders enjoy a cost of funds advantage and then they are able to spread their future costs (e.g., new technology, customer acquisition, market share acquisition etc.) and spread those cost across a higher volume of mortgage transactions, therefore reducing their average operational costs relative to smaller competitors. On the servicing side, direct servicing expenses for servicers of fewer than 2,500 mortgage loans have been 13 percent higher per loan than direct servicing expenses for servicers of more than 50,000 loans. Servicing is the one asset that has a tangible value and companies have historically sold the servicing to offset originations expense in a downward trending market. And yes a few of these independent mortgage companies have ventured to build their servicing portfolios since the financial crash of 2008, but now they face the daunting task of selling off those assets to fund their origination operations. According to the latest data available for these independent mortgage companies, is that their operating expense for cost to produce a loan are at best at the breakeven point or even worse that they losing money on their  loan originations business. The MBA latest data reflected that the independent mortgage banker cost to manufacture a loan in the 4^th quarter 2013 was above $5,100.00 per loan, and with a shrinking mortgage market, companies that have that high of cost to produce a loan  will no longer be able to compete moving forward. Look at this way, if it cost  $5,100.00 to manufacture a loan and they have relied on compensation models that requires 100 to 125 basis points to attract their loan originators, how does the accounting in that model work? There are only so many basis points in each loan It does not, is the simplest answer.

What is the newest trend; it is mergers and acquisitions talks among these players. The consolidations of these companies will accelerate over the balance of 2014 into 2015. There will be a divide among those that are financially strong and those that are financially weak and over the next 12 months it will change the landscape for these independent mortgage companies in the mortgage industry.

Also concerning to the mortgage industry is the aging of its own workforce nationally.  The continued aging of the mortgage sales professional will not be well suited to attract the newest consumer power group with the largest buying capacity, the X’s, Y’s and millenniums. The X’s, Y’s and Millenniums are more comfortable with technology and are more willing than any group ever before, to independently conduct their own research of financial services products than we have seen in the last 40 years. With the average age of 53 years old for the Loan Officer and 57 years of age for the Real Estate Agent there is huge disconnect with the future customer. Sadly, I am not seeing a lot of training nor mentoring programs to attract this age group into the industry.

Quicken Loans has established its place as the lender that can technologically manufacture your loan and provide a positive customer experience and Wells Fargo has built a distributed retail customer base, have trusted national brand and have established a cross sell model that is centered around the mortgage to last through this disruption, but who else is in that category? The large depositories like B of A, Chase and Citi, are only here to serve their bank customer base and have demonstrated distaste for the mortgage industry. There are also hybrid sales models that have been coming to market over the last couple of years utilizing the efficiencies and lower cost of a call center model combined with a distributed sales force model. These models are hybrid between a consumer direct and a retail model. The consumer direct channel has demonstrated to be very cost efficient model but has been historically reliant on re-financing mortgages not pursuing purchase mortgages. Will there be a dominate player that takes these channels and successfully combined them into a future sales model that works? I would have to say that is still to be determined. 

Therefore the independent financial service company must re-think their sales process and their service model or they face a huge threat to be replaced by technologist that will figure out a better customer experience and loan delivery process that will work for the consumer of the future. If the big data that companies like Zillow, Trulia and others are gathering today does not alarm you that they can build a first to the consumer model and influence the sale process and you do not think that they are looking at ways to further disrupt the home buying and financing process, then you do not understand their original intend. Just ask Realtor.Com and the National MLS’s. That is why they were created, funded and have experienced the growth they have had in such a short time.

The Trusted Advisor has a role in the future mortgage and financial services models but not at the compensation levels that have historically been in place. The Mortgage Banker, the Real Estate Agent, the Insurance Broker and the Personal Banker have seen their best paydays and the acceptance of that needs to happen or they risk further role reduction moving forward.

As for Community Banks, there has not been in recent memory the opportunity they have had to further their penetration into mortgage than they have enjoyed since the crash of 2008. But with the regulatory outlook moving forward and the compression of earning they too will be undergoing a sea of mergers. If the banking crisis of the 1980s and early 1990s is our guide, the industry should expect merger activity to spike to 20-year highs between 2014 and 2018 — further diminishing the number of community banks left standing to compete in the mortgage lending model.

Among numerous problems the industry faces, that one that lies at the forefront is the fact the financial services industries lost the trust of the American public with the onset of the Financial Crisis in 2008 and even today have not regained that trust. Companies’ that are creating different customer experience and a simpler loan delivery process that builds trust in the process with clear disclosure will be the model that works in the future.

In 29 years of my working in the mortgage banking industry, there have never been so many different pressure points on this industry to change as there are today and how companies choose to respond in 2014 and moving forward will define those that are left standing to provide their valuable service to their customer.

May 15, 2014 Posted by recruiterchuckcowan | Branch Manager, CFPB, Coaching, Employment Trends, Housing, Loan Officer Recruiting, Management, Management Developement, Management Training, Mortgage, Mortgage Banking, Mortgage Banking Recruitment, Mortgage Branch Manager, Mortgage Company, Mortgage Loan Officer, Mortgage News, Mortgage Outlook, Mortgage Regulation, Mortgage Sales Recruiting, Real Estate, Recruitment Training, Sales Growth, Sales Leadership, Sales Management, Uncategorized | Leave a comment